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Prioritizing a Pipeline Against the Clock

Prioritizing a Pipeline Against the Clock

Situation

A public, clinical-stage biotech had more clinical-stage opportunities than its roughly 18 months of cash could support. Management and the board weren't aligned on a path forward, and live business-development opportunities needed answers.

What We Did

We led a systematic portfolio analysis spanning both development and BD options, evaluating a dozen candidate expansion indications for the lead assets to prioritize clinical development options. In parallel we characterized a range of BD options including deal term expectations for partnering worldwide, partnering outside the US, or retaining rights and self-commercializing.

We facilitated executive dialogue to generate a manageable list of actionable alternatives, combining clinical development and BD options. Then we evaluated these alternatives using short-term financial measures such as time and cost to next value inflection point and long-term metrics such as eNPV and investment productivity (value creation per unit of investment).

Outcome

The C-suite and board aligned on a reprioritized development plan across the key assets, chose to retain rights and self-commercialize the lead product, out-licensed a deprioritized asset, and shelved an in-licensed program whose commercial case had weakened against recent competitor data.

Value Inflections

Case studies

Read more case studies

Breaking a Cross-Border Licensing Deadlock

A European biotech and a US company had reached an impasse in a cross-border licensing negotiation, unable to agree on what either asset was worth. We built independent, probability-adjusted valuations for both products and led the deal-terms modeling that both parties ultimately adopted as the shared benchmark, shifting terms materially toward our client: a swing of more than $10M in upfront and milestone value.

Breaking a Cross-Border Licensing Deadlock

A European biotech and a US company had reached an impasse in a cross-border licensing negotiation, unable to agree on what either asset was worth. We built independent, probability-adjusted valuations for both products and led the deal-terms modeling that both parties ultimately adopted as the shared benchmark, shifting terms materially toward our client: a swing of more than $10M in upfront and milestone value.

two women near tables

Choosing Between a Founding Platform and a Newer Program

A public biotech's pipeline had split into two halves, the high-risk platform science it was originally built on and a newer, more conventional clinical program, and the board was divided over which defined the company's future. We ran a probability-weighted portfolio review across every asset and showed the newer program decisively outperformed the legacy platform on return per dollar invested. The board approved a strategic redirection: divesting the legacy franchise and backing the program that later carried the company to its first commercial launch.

two women near tables

Choosing Between a Founding Platform and a Newer Program

A public biotech's pipeline had split into two halves, the high-risk platform science it was originally built on and a newer, more conventional clinical program, and the board was divided over which defined the company's future. We ran a probability-weighted portfolio review across every asset and showed the newer program decisively outperformed the legacy platform on return per dollar invested. The board approved a strategic redirection: divesting the legacy franchise and backing the program that later carried the company to its first commercial launch.